Al Shabaab militants have dramatically escalated their operations in central Somalia since January 2025, launching a coordinated campaign that threatens to overturn significant counterterrorism achievements made in 2022, according to recent security assessments.
The terrorist group has increased attacks in the strategically important Hiraan and Middle Shabelle regions by 50 percent compared to 2024 averages, demonstrating a renewed capability to challenge Somali government forces. In a concerning development, Al Shabaab has seized more towns in these regions during the first three months of 2025 than throughout the entirety of 2024.
“The enemy is going through the most difficult stages and is drawing his last breath. Therefore, we must all rise up to finish him off,” declared a former Al Shabaab leader in a propaganda video released on March 10, signaling possible intentions to escalate further.
Despite suffering significant losses in manpower and territorial control, Al Shabaab has capitalized on the Somali government’s ineffective media strategy. Security experts note that while government forces and community militias continue to make progress in eradicating the group militarily, they fail to counter the terrorists’ sophisticated propaganda machine. This information vacuum allows Al Shabaab to project an image of strength that contradicts battlefield realities.
The militant group appears to be executing a two-front strategy designed to link its support zones in central and southern Somalia while simultaneously encircling the capital, Mogadishu. Security analysts note that the offensive aims to exploit gaps created by the haphazard implementation of the new African Union mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and the withdrawal of Burundian forces that previously secured the Middle Shabelle region.
“Al Shabaab has maintained an offensive northeast of Mogadishu across central Somalia since January 2025 that seeks to exploit security gaps to encircle the capital and overturn landmark, US-backed Somali counterterrorism gains from 2022,” notes the assessment.
The group’s brazen operations have extended to the capital itself. In mid-March, militants attempted to assassinate Somali President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud with a large improvised explosive device as his convoy traveled near Mogadishu airport – the first such attempt since 2014. While Mohamud escaped unharmed, the attack killed at least four people and underscored Al Shabaab’s infiltration around the capital.
Complicating the situation further, opposition political groups have indirectly reinforced Al Shabaab’s propaganda narratives, creating a challenging information environment for the government. These opposition elements, while not directly supporting terrorism, amplify messages that undermine public confidence in security operations and government capabilities.
Equally alarming was the complex siege attack launched on March 11 against a gathering of prominent elders at a hotel in Beledweyne, the Hiraan regional capital. This marked the group’s first major attack in the city since 2022. Similarly, in late February, Al Shabaab temporarily overran security forces in Bal’ad, a district capital just 15 miles northeast of Mogadishu’s administrative limits, freeing captured militants.
The resurgence threatens to unravel the landmark gains achieved during Somalia’s first-ever successful, locally-led offensive against Al Shabaab in 2022. That campaign had liberated dozens of villages and several district capitals in central Somalia, cleared the strategic highway linking Mogadishu to Ethiopia, and degraded the group’s lines of communication between its enclaves.
In response to the renewed threat, Somali forces and international partners have nearly quadrupled their average monthly rate of operations across the affected regions in 2025 compared to 2024. President Mohamud personally traveled to Adan Yabal on March 18 to rally local clan militia support, reminiscent of his hands-on approach during the successful 2022 offensive.
International partners have more than doubled the number of drone strikes against Al Shabaab in 2025 compared to all of 2024. While these strikes have prevented the militants from holding many temporarily captured locations, they have not stopped the group from mounting large-scale attacks that have inflicted significant casualties on Somali forces.
As Somalia grapples with this intensified threat, the sustainability of its security gains and the future trajectory of the conflict remain uncertain, with significant implications for regional stability and international counterterrorism efforts in East Africa. Military successes alone may prove insufficient without a corresponding strategy to win the equally important information war.
