The African Union’s transition from the African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) to the African Union Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSOM) was expected to mark a shift in the operational dynamics of foreign troops in Somalia. One of the most contentious issues in this transition was Ethiopia’s role in AUSOM, particularly given the Somali Federal Government’s (FGS) strong opposition to Ethiopia’s participation. However, despite FGS efforts to exclude Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) from the new mission, Ethiopia has successfully maintained its military presence in Somalia, particularly in the Bay and Bakool regions.
The Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has long opposed Ethiopia’s participation in AUSOM, citing concerns over sovereignty, regional influence, and Ethiopia’s controversial agreements with breakaway regions like Somaliland. Somalia’s leadership argued that Ethiopia’s presence under AUSOM would not align with its national security interests, particularly in light of recent diplomatic tensions between the two nations. Somalia sought to exclude Ethiopia from AUSOM as part of broader efforts to reclaim full control over security operations within its borders. The government believed that other AU member states could contribute to stabilization without the presence of Ethiopian troops, whom many Somali officials see as having political ambitions in Somalia rather than a purely security-focused role.
Despite Somalia’s objections, Ethiopia managed to maintain its military presence in Somalia under AUSOM through strategic diplomacy and regional alliances. Ethiopia leveraged its longstanding role as a key security partner in the region, emphasizing its historical contributions to counterterrorism efforts against Al-Shabaab. Furthermore, Ethiopia’s influence within the African Union (AU) played a significant role in securing its place in AUSOM. Addis Ababa argued that withdrawing ENDF from Somalia would create a security vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit. This argument resonated with AU decision-makers and international stakeholders who prioritize stability over political disputes.
Ethiopia’s continued presence in the Bay and Bakool regions underscores the strategic importance of these areas in the fight against Al-Shabaab. Both regions have been contested battlegrounds, with Al-Shabaab maintaining a significant presence. Ethiopia has long stationed its troops in these areas under ATMIS, and their continued presence under AUSOM suggests a calculated move to maintain influence over a critical part of Somalia. The Bay and Bakool regions also serve as a crucial buffer zone for Ethiopia. By keeping its troops stationed there, Ethiopia ensures that Al-Shabaab remains at a distance from its own borders. Additionally, the region holds economic and political significance, as control over it provides leverage in broader regional negotiations.
Ethiopia’s continued presence in Somalia under AUSOM raises significant questions about Somalia’s sovereignty and the effectiveness of its diplomatic strategies. On one hand, Somalia’s leadership can claim a partial victory by preventing Ethiopia from playing a leading role in AUSOM as it did in ATMIS. On the other hand, the fact that Ethiopia has managed to remain on Somali soil, despite explicit government opposition, highlights the limits of Somalia’s influence over regional security arrangements. For Somalia, this development is both a security and political challenge. While Ethiopia’s forces contribute to counterterrorism efforts, their presence also reinforces perceptions of foreign control over Somalia’s security affairs. Somali political leaders must now navigate a delicate balance between leveraging AU support for security stabilization and asserting greater national control over military operations within the country.
The international community has largely focused on the broader implications of AUSOM’s transition, with many stakeholders emphasizing stability over the political dispute between Somalia and Ethiopia. The United Nations, the African Union, and Western allies such as the United States and the European Union have all underscored the importance of continued security cooperation to prevent a resurgence of Al-Shabaab. However, Ethiopia’s presence under AUSOM may also strain relations between Mogadishu and Addis Ababa, further complicating future diplomatic engagements between the two countries. The Somali government is likely to continue advocating for a phased reduction of Ethiopian forces, while Ethiopia may seek to cement its influence through alternative diplomatic and security arrangements.
While Somalia successfully limited Ethiopia’s official role in the new AU mission, Ethiopia’s continued deployment in Bay and Bakool reflects its strategic interests and diplomatic capabilities. For Somalia, the challenge moving forward is to assert greater control over its security operations while managing external military influences. As AUSOM takes full effect, the Somali government must navigate these geopolitical realities carefully, ensuring that foreign troop presence aligns with national security interests rather than external political ambitions. Meanwhile, Ethiopia’s role in Somalia remains a contentious issue, shaping the broader regional security landscape for the foreseeable future.
