As President Donald Trump ramps up military strikes against Yemen’s Houthi rebels, security experts are warning of a dangerous new alliance forming between the Houthis and Somalia’s Al-Qaeda-linked Al-Shabaab militants.
U.S. intelligence first detected discussions between the two militant groups in June 2024, according to officials familiar with the matter. A UN report released last month confirmed representatives from both organisations met at least twice in Somalia during the height of the Red Sea crisis last year.
“We’ve seen concrete evidence that Ansar Allah agreed to provide Al-Shabaab with weapons and technical know-how,” said a Western diplomat who requested anonymity because they weren’t authorised to discuss sensitive intelligence. “In exchange, Al-Shabaab is expected to step up piracy operations in the Gulf of Aden.”
The growing relationship comes as U.S. forces conduct airstrikes against Houthi positions following months of attacks on commercial shipping in the Red Sea.
Analysts at the Carnegie Endowment believe the partnership aims to “strengthen supply chains, secure advanced weaponry, and expand strategic options” for both groups, potentially reshaping maritime security in one of the world’s most critical shipping lanes.
Omar Mahmood, senior Eastern Africa analyst at the International Crisis Group, told reporters that Yemen has long served as an arms market for Somalia.
“This engagement could establish a more direct commercial relationship, facilitating new types of weapons transfers to Al-Shabaab,” Mahmood said. “But a deeper strategic partnership seems unlikely given their different ideologies and operational areas.”
Security analyst Mathew Park agrees, pointing to sectarian differences that make the groups “unlikely partners” beyond regional weapons-smuggling networks.
“Al-Shabaab already possesses Iranian-made weapons originally meant for the Houthis,” Park noted. “They share contacts in Gulf of Aden smuggling routes, but deeper cooperation faces significant barriers.”
A recent report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime confirmed some Al-Shabaab weapons originated from Iranian shipments intended for Yemen, but suggested this reflected profit-driven trafficking rather than coordinated support.
Intelligence sources indicate Iran provides financial and military backing to Al-Shabaab, including explosives and bomb-making materials, driven largely by shared anti-Western objectives.
As tensions escalate, regional observers fear the developing relationship could further destabilise the Horn of Africa and threaten vital shipping lanes connecting Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal.
