The war between Israel and Iran has brought instability to global energy markets, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint through which nearly 20 percent of the world’s oil supply passes. As the conflict intensifies, shipping routes face increasing threats, insurance premiums for oil tankers have soared, and the risk of wider regional war has grown. In response, the West has accelerated its search for new energy sources outside the Gulf, and one unlikely beneficiary has emerged—Somalia.
For decades, Somalia has been associated with civil conflict, state collapse, and piracy. But beneath its troubled past lies an untapped potential that is now drawing global interest. Somalia’s long coastline, particularly its offshore basins in the Indian Ocean, may hold vast reserves of crude oil and natural gas. These reserves have remained largely unexplored due to insecurity, political fragmentation, and a lack of investment. That is beginning to change.
As the Western world scrambles to reduce its reliance on Iranian oil, Somalia has found itself in a strategic position. In recent years, Somalia signed an exploration agreement with Turkey, marking a turning point in its energy ambitions. Turkish energy firms, with the backing of the Turkish government, began surveying Somalia’s offshore basins. Early seismic data has been promising. Initial findings suggest Somalia may be sitting on one of the largest untapped oil reserves in the world, potentially holding up to 110 billion barrels of crude.
If this estimate proves accurate, Somalia would rank among the top ten oil-rich countries globally, ahead of Libya, Nigeria, and even the United States. For a country that has relied on remittances and donor aid for survival, the potential to become a major energy exporter is nothing short of revolutionary.
The West, particularly the United States, is paying attention. As Washington distances itself from Iranian and even Saudi energy dependency, it sees in Somalia not just an oil source but a strategic partner in the Horn of Africa. The United States has increased its diplomatic engagement in Mogadishu and has quietly supported efforts to stabilize the region, not just for counterterrorism, but now with an eye on energy development.
Turkey has already laid the groundwork. It has invested heavily in Somalia’s infrastructure, education, health care, and defense. Now, with the energy partnership underway, Turkey is positioning itself as a long-term stakeholder in Somalia’s future. Its presence at the port of Mogadishu and growing influence within Somali institutions give it a strong advantage in managing the logistics and security required for offshore drilling.
Qatar, too, has emerged as an important partner. With its financial resources and experience managing energy wealth, Doha is helping Somalia negotiate better terms and avoid falling into predatory arrangements that have trapped other emerging oil states. Qatar’s ability to act as a bridge between Somali leadership and global investors has added a layer of credibility to Somalia’s efforts.
All of this has created an unexpected alignment of global interests. The war between Israel and Iran has made Iranian oil politically toxic in the West. The Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea, once considered too dangerous for long-term investment, are now being reexamined. Somalia, with its vast unexplored offshore blocks and newfound international support, is becoming part of the solution.
This moment of opportunity, however, comes with great responsibility. Somalia’s leaders must proceed carefully. Oil wealth, if mismanaged, has the potential to deepen corruption, provoke internal rivalries, and attract foreign interference. The experiences of South Sudan, Nigeria, and Venezuela serve as cautionary tales. Somalia must build strong institutions, ensure transparency in contracts, and put in place regulatory mechanisms that prevent elite capture of oil revenues.
At the same time, Somalia must secure its maritime boundaries and address lingering disputes with its federal member states. Oil and gas reserves lie not only offshore but also in contested inland areas like Puntland and the central regions. Unless there is a fair and equitable system of revenue sharing, the discovery of oil could spark new conflicts instead of resolving old ones.
Somalia must also manage public expectations. The path from exploration to production is long and expensive. Infrastructure, security, legal frameworks, and skilled labor must all be developed. It may take years before oil revenues begin to flow in significant amounts. That timeline must be communicated clearly to avoid political manipulation and public frustration.
Despite these challenges, Somalia has a rare chance to redefine its national trajectory. For the first time in decades, the world is not talking about Somalia as a problem to solve, but as a country with something valuable to offer. Oil wealth, properly managed, could fund education, health care, roads, clean water, and public services. It could provide jobs for thousands of young Somalis and reduce dependence on foreign aid. It could even strengthen the case for one-person-one-vote democracy, giving citizens a stake in national resources.
The conflict between Israel and Iran is reshaping the global energy map. It has exposed the fragility of the old order and created space for new players to emerge. Somalia, long on the margins, is now in a position to step forward. The world is ready to help, but it will be up to Somali leaders to prove that the country is ready to help itself.
This is more than just an oil story. It is a chance for Somalia to rewrite its narrative. It is a chance to rise from the ruins of war and poverty and take its rightful place among the world’s emerging economies. If Somalia seizes this moment with vision, discipline, and unity, it may not only survive the storm of global change—it may become one of its unexpected winners.
