Tensions between Ethiopia and Eritrea have reached their lowest point since the end of the Tigray war in 2022. The two neighbouring countries, once allies, are now facing renewed hostilities, raising fears of another conflict in the Horn of Africa.
At the centre of the dispute is the Tigray region, which suffered a devastating war that ended with a peace agreement in November 2022. Now, both Ethiopia and Eritrea are seeking to influence Tigrayan leaders, who remain divided over their future.
Since the end of the Tigray war, relations between Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki have deteriorated. Eritrea played a key role in the conflict, supporting Ethiopian forces against the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). However, since the signing of the peace agreement, tensions have grown over political and security concerns.
Eritrean forces had been accused of committing atrocities in Tigray, and their continued presence in some areas after the war fuelled resentment. Ethiopia, under pressure from international allies, sought to distance itself from Eritrea and re-establish its authority in Tigray. This shift has angered the Eritrean government, which views Tigrayan leaders as long-time adversaries.
Recent reports suggest that Eritrea has been strengthening its military along the border with Ethiopia. There are also claims that Eritrean forces have been making incursions into Ethiopian territory, further escalating tensions. In response, Ethiopia has increased its military presence in the region.
Amid these tensions, Tigrayan leaders are struggling to unite. The TPLF, which led the region before the war, remains a dominant political force, but it is facing internal divisions. Some leaders are open to working with the Ethiopian government, while others remain deeply distrustful of Abiy Ahmed’s administration.
Eritrea sees this division as an opportunity. President Isaias is reportedly trying to gain influence among Tigrayan factions that oppose Abiy. However, many Tigrayans remember the role Eritrean forces played in the war and are unwilling to align with Eritrea.
At the same time, the Ethiopian government is working to integrate Tigrayan leaders into the national political system. The federal government has appointed some Tigrayan officials to key positions, hoping to gain their support. But many in Tigray remain skeptical, fearing that Addis Ababa still seeks to weaken their autonomy.
The growing hostility between Ethiopia and Eritrea is raising alarm among regional and international observers. The African Union and the United Nations have called for dialogue to prevent another war. The United States and the European Union, which played a role in brokering the 2022 peace deal, have also urged both sides to de-escalate tensions.
A new conflict between Ethiopia and Eritrea would have severe consequences. Both countries are already facing economic challenges, and another war would further destabilize the region. Neighboring countries, such as Sudan and Somalia, could also be affected by renewed fighting.
Human rights organizations have warned that another conflict could lead to more displacement and humanitarian crises. The war in Tigray left millions in need of aid, and a new war would worsen the situation.
For now, the situation remains tense. While both governments have not officially declared a new conflict, their actions suggest a deepening rift. The coming months will be critical in determining whether Ethiopia and Eritrea can avoid another war or if the region is heading toward more instability.
The key question remains: Can Ethiopia and Eritrea find common ground, or will their rivalry push them into another devastating conflict? The answer may depend on how Tigrayan leaders position themselves in this growing crisis.
