Tensions between Eritrea and Ethiopia have reached a boiling point, sparking concerns among regional observers and diplomats that open war may soon erupt between the two Horn of Africa nations. Quiet but sharp military build-ups, coupled with diplomatic posturing and media silence, suggest a confrontation is no longer a question of if but when.
Recent satellite imagery reviewed by Western defense analysts indicates significant troop deployments along the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, particularly near the contested Badme region. These movements coincide with renewed hostility in state rhetoric and growing accusations from both governments regarding territorial violations and foreign interference.
Diplomatic sources in Addis Ababa confirm that several European and Gulf embassies have been briefed in recent weeks by intelligence officials concerned about the deteriorating relationship between Eritrean President Isaias Afwerki and Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed. At the heart of the dispute is a breakdown in trust following the 2018 peace agreement, which, despite global praise, never resulted in a meaningful demilitarization or political alignment.
While many of the issues remain deeply historical, today’s dynamics are shaped by shifting regional alliances. Eritrea, traditionally isolated, has emerged as a key military ally to the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s civil war, while Ethiopia remains aligned with the internationally recognized Sudanese government based in Port Sudan. This proxy alignment has drawn both countries into a larger conflict not of their making but one they now find themselves deeply entangled in.
Regional intelligence indicates that arms shipments have been flowing through Eritrean ports, mainly Massawa and Assab, to support RSF forces led by General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, also known as Hemedti. These weapons, according to a confidential African Union briefing, are largely financed and facilitated by the United Arab Emirates. In contrast, Türkiye, which has backed the Sudanese government and built deep ties with Ethiopia’s military and intelligence sectors, sees Eritrea’s actions as a direct threat to its influence in the region.
The competition between UAE and Türkiye, though not publicly acknowledged, has become a shadow conflict that plays out across multiple fronts in the Horn. From Somalia to Sudan, and now possibly on the Eritrea-Ethiopia border, the rivalry is reshaping traditional alliances and dragging local actors into wider geopolitical games.
Turkish military advisors in Addis Ababa have reportedly increased cooperation with the Ethiopian army, and unconfirmed reports suggest that Turkish drones may be deployed to monitor the Eritrean border. Meanwhile, Eritrean officials have made several unannounced visits to Abu Dhabi, signaling deepening coordination with UAE intelligence and logistics networks.
For Eritrea, which views Ethiopian ambitions in the Red Sea corridor with suspicion, the time to act may seem now. For Prime Minister Abiy, who is already managing internal instability in Amhara and Oromia regions, a war with Eritrea would be catastrophic. However, sources close to Ethiopia’s National Defense Force leadership say they are preparing for the “worst-case scenario” and have begun reinforcing northern commands.
Diplomatic efforts to prevent war remain limited and fragmented. The African Union, based in Addis Ababa, has remained largely silent, as has the United Nations. One AU diplomat, speaking anonymously, admitted the organization has no current plan to mediate the rising tensions. “There is too much international involvement and very little trust between the parties,” the diplomat said. “Even if we called them to the table, they wouldn’t come.”
The United States and the European Union have issued general calls for restraint, but no substantive mediation initiative has been launched. Analysts suggest that without direct high-level engagement from influential actors, including Gulf and Turkish authorities, the situation will likely spiral into conflict.
What makes this looming war particularly dangerous is the way it interlocks with the wider conflict engulfing the Horn of Africa. In Sudan, the war between RSF and the Sudanese Armed Forces continues to rage, with regional spillover increasing. The UAE-backed RSF has received logistical support via Eritrea and parts of eastern Libya, while Türkiye, Qatar, and Egypt align more closely with the Sudanese government.
This volatile mix of alliances has turned the Horn into a chessboard for external actors. As the lines blur between local rivalries and international agendas, the threat of an Eritrea-Ethiopia war could trigger a cascade of military escalations stretching from the Red Sea coast to the heart of Sudan and potentially beyond.
For now, war remains a matter of anticipation, not fact. But those watching closely say the silence from both capitals is the loudest signal yet. The question haunting regional diplomats is not just who will fire the first shot, but who stands to benefit from the chaos that follows.
