The Fragile Peace in Tigray: Two Years After the Pretoria Agreement
When the Ethiopian government and the Tigrayan opposition signed the cessation of hostilities agreement in late 2022, a glimmer of hope emerged for a region long plagued by violence. The deal, which ended one of the most brutal conflicts of the 21st century, brought an official halt to the fighting that had torn apart northern Ethiopia, claiming an estimated 600,000 lives—although many analysts believe the true toll could be far higher. The war, which escalated in late 2020, saw vast armies clashing, mechanized units rumbling across the battlefield, and air strikes devastating civilian infrastructure. The scale of the conflict, particularly in its sheer brutality, was more reminiscent of early 20th-century battles like the Battle of the Somme than modern warfare.
Named after Pretoria, the South African capital where it was signed, the cessation of hostilities agreement included provisions for a temporary ceasefire and the establishment of an interim administration in Tigray. The agreement promised to pave the way for a peaceful and stable future for the region, with promises of humanitarian aid, political dialogue, and the eventual normalization of relations between the Ethiopian government and Tigrayan leaders.
However, as the two-year anniversary of the agreement approaches in mid-March 2025, the situation on the ground in Tigray is far from secure. Despite the ceasefire, the interim administration, established to provide governance and stability, is facing numerous challenges. These challenges include not only lingering hostilities and mistrust between the warring parties but also deep economic struggles, logistical hurdles, and the presence of armed groups that continue to threaten peace.
The Challenges of the Interim Administration
The Pretoria Agreement outlined the formation of an interim government for Tigray, which was intended to bring stability and manage the transition back to peace. However, the interim administration has struggled to establish its authority. The region’s governance has been marred by infighting, political rivalries, and an ongoing sense of insecurity that undermines its effectiveness. There have been reports of administrative disruptions, with local authorities and international organizations citing a lack of clear leadership and coordination.
One of the main obstacles is the continued mistrust between the Ethiopian federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). Though the TPLF has agreed to cooperate under the terms of the cessation of hostilities, there is a deep-rooted animosity stemming from the conflict, with lingering accusations of atrocities committed on both sides. As a result, political dialogue has remained slow and, at times, counterproductive, with key issues like the return of refugees, the disarming of militias, and the status of disputed territories remaining unresolved.
Humanitarian Crisis: A Legacy of Destruction
Even though the cessation of hostilities agreement allowed for some degree of humanitarian aid to flow into Tigray, the region remains in the grip of a humanitarian catastrophe. The infrastructure needed to support millions of people who were displaced by the war is in ruins. The blockade that was imposed by the Ethiopian government during the conflict, which severely restricted the movement of people and goods, has left the region in a state of severe deprivation.
Aid organizations have reported that although conditions have improved slightly since the ceasefire, the region still faces widespread food insecurity, inadequate healthcare, and lack of access to basic services like clean water and education. Tens of thousands of people remain in refugee camps, with many unable to return to their homes due to the destruction or continued insecurity.
The rebuilding process has been sluggish at best, with funds and resources stretched thin and international support often slow to materialize. The legacy of the war has left deep scars in Tigray, and it will take years, if not decades, for the region to recover fully from the war’s physical and psychological toll.
Military and Political Dynamics: Tensions Persist
Although the fighting officially ended, the political and military dynamics in northern Ethiopia remain volatile. The Ethiopian federal government’s military forces, including those of the Amhara region and other allied groups, still have a significant presence in Tigray. Meanwhile, Tigrayan fighters, despite agreeing to a ceasefire, retain their arms and are deeply distrustful of the government’s intentions.
Moreover, the region is far from unified. The presence of several armed groups, including militias with ties to regional powers such as Eritrea, adds another layer of complexity to an already precarious situation. Eritrean forces, which had been involved in the conflict alongside Ethiopian troops, have been accused of committing war crimes and continuing to exert influence over Tigray’s northern border. While Eritrea has officially withdrawn, the threat of renewed conflict remains ever-present.
The Ethiopian government has also struggled to maintain a clear and consistent strategy in Tigray, wavering between efforts to stabilize the region and the desire to reassert its authority over rebellious factions. As the interim administration struggles to gain the trust of Tigrayan civilians, and with no clear vision for the future of the region, the risk of further fragmentation or violence remains high.
International Community’s Role: A Watchful Eye
The international community, including the United Nations, the African Union, and regional powers, has played a critical role in facilitating the ceasefire and monitoring the peace process. However, international pressure to ensure the implementation of the agreement and the stabilisation of Tigray has been inconsistent. While aid organisations and peacekeepers have helped maintain some level of support, there is a general sense that the international community has been slow to act on the political and military fronts.
The two-year anniversary of the Pretoria Agreement serves as a stark reminder of the fragile peace that has been established in Tigray. While the cessation of hostilities was a remarkable achievement in bringing an end to the fighting, the road to lasting peace and stability remains fraught with challenges. The interim administration’s future remains uncertain, and the region’s recovery will depend on continued political dialogue, effective governance, and robust international support.
As Tigray stands at a crossroads, the hope is that the lessons learnt from the conflict will not be forgotten and that a more inclusive, sustainable peace can emerge from the ashes of war. However, as the region continues to struggle with the legacy of the conflict, the world must remain vigilant in its efforts to support peace and rebuild the lives of those affected by one of Africa’s most devastating wars of the century.
